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Colorado’s COVID-19 Epidemic Curve Should Continue to Decline in the Weeks Ahead

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The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment and Colorado School of Public Health released an updated statewide modeling report suggesting the current curve has begun to decline and should continue to do so in coming weeks, though Colorado is still experiencing a very high level of SARS-CoV-2 disease transmission in the state. 

“It is encouraging to see this modeling report suggest we have moved beyond the peak of our omicron surge, and that we should continue to see declining COVID-19 transmission in Colorado in the coming weeks,” said Dr. Rachel Herlihy, state epidemiologist. “There are still high levels of COVID-19 circulating in the state, so we ask Coloradans to remain cautious and continue to follow public health guidance to help protect themselves and others — get vaccinated, get a third dose as soon as it is time, wear a mask in public, and avoid large gatherings. Together we can work to ensure case rates continue to decrease in Colorado.”

Immunity to omicron is high and rising, and the modeling estimates that 80% of the state population will be immune to omicron by mid-February. Based on Colorado data, the Colorado COVID-19 Modeling Group estimates that one in 19 Coloradans is currently infectious. The report notes that while there is uncertainty around this estimate, all evidence indicates infection prevalence has been at unprecedented levels in January 2022, but the model projects this prevalence will decline in coming weeks, potentially to below 1% by the end of February.

The latest modeling projections are based on COVID-19 hospital census data through January 23, 2022, and vaccination data through January 14, 2022.

The Colorado School of Public Health (ColoradoSPH) assembled the expert group that works with the state on modeling projections. The group includes modeling scientists at ColoradoSPH and the University of Colorado School of Medicine at the CU Anschutz Medical Campus, as well as experts from the University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado Denver, and Colorado State University.

Continue to stay up to date by visiting covid19.colorado.gov.