Colorado has released new COVID-19 modeling data developed by a team that includes experts from state agencies, as well as the University of Colorado School of Medicine at the CU Anschutz Medical Campus, and the University of Colorado in Denver and Boulder.
Colorado Gov. Jared Polis says the state has slowed the rate of COVID-19 transmission from doubling every two days to doubling every five days. “It wouldn't be so good to peak in mid-April," said Kathryn Colborn, an assistant professor at the University of Colorado School of Medicine. Colborn is the director of Surgical Outcomes and Applied Research at the CU Anschutz Medical Campus.
The Colorado School of Public Health (ColoradoSPH) assembled an expert team to assist the CDPHE in understanding the potential course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colorado. A team of volunteer experts modeled the COVID-19 pandemic by using approaches tailored to Colorado specifically. The modeling is updated as the disease continues to spread.
Projections by a Colorado School of Public Health volunteer research team anticipate 39,114 infections by Nov. 19, peak hospitalizations of 2,703 on Nov. 27, 379 deaths by June 1 and 6,639 deaths by Jan. 1.The team includes experts from the University of Colorado School of Medicine at the CU Anschutz Medical Campus, CU Boulder and CU Denver. They’ve been updating their projections as the virus spreads and more information becomes available.
“They appear during what are called mass casualty events when there are large-scale hazards that cause larger than normal numbers of patients to need intensive care,” said Glen Mays, chair of the Department of Health Systems, Management and Policy at The University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Center.
"These are decisions we hope to never have to make, but it would be irresponsible given what has happened in the rest of the world including Seattle, in New York and New Orleans, and other places around the U.S., to assume that we are never going to see that kind of a situation here," said Dr. Matthew Wynia, the Director of Bioethics at the University of Colorado.
Dr. Sean O’Leary, a professor at the University of Colorado School of Medicine and a member on the infectious diseases committee for the American Academy of Pediatrics, understands the over-precaution new parents and even pediatricians are practicing because “we haven’t got a lot of research with newborns” and the coronavirus.
“I still believe that masks are primarily for health care workers and for those who are sick to help prevent spreading droplets to others,” said Dr. Adit Ginde, a professor of emergency medicine at the University of Colorado School of Medicine. “However, I do believe that for limited circumstances when individuals must be in close quarters with others, a correctly positioned mask or other face cover for a short duration could be helpful.”
