The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) today released additional modeling results from an expert group of public health scientists led by the Colorado School of Public Health (ColoradoSPH). The state is also seeking feedback on draft guidance for places of worship, personal recreation, and outdoor industries by Wednesday at noon. Updated guidance for short-term rentals goes into effect today.
The latest Colorado modeling report is available to the public, as are the presentation slides from today’s media briefing. All modeling reports are available on the Colorado School of Public Health’s COVID-19 website.
The report provides an estimate of the degree of distancing that Coloradans have achieved so far. It also provides projections based on various policy scenarios around physical distancing, mask-wearing, and improved case detection and containment. The models are based on Colorado data and assumptions.
Key findings from today’s report:
- Mobility data show a continued decline in time spent at home, likely reflecting the change from Stay at Home to Safer at Home.
- The updated model findings, which cover the period through May 14, indicate that COVID-19 continues to decline in Colorado, but the declines have begun to slow.
- The extent the community is social distancing has dropped to 75% through May 14 as the entire state moved to Safer at Home. The reproductive number is increasing.
- Modeling projections that extend into the summer and through November 2020 continue to indicate a need for social distancing of at least 65% unless most people 60 years and older maintain high levels of social distancing (80%) as seen during the Stay-at-Home period. Relaxation of social distancing to lower levels (45% or lower) is predicted to lead to a surge in sick people in excess of hospital capacity by mid-summer, even if implemented with mask-wearing, increased case detection and isolation, and higher levels of social distancing by all older adults.
- Model findings indicate that increased mask-wearing will help control the COVID-19 epidemic.
